from yahoo board but if correct DDRX going much higher....
Share Prices:
CBOU $4.69
GMCR $80.50
PEET $26.67
SBUX $13.66
DDRX $9.93
Shares Outstanding:
CBOU 19.4 million
GMCR 24.7 million
PEET 12.9 million
SBUX 734.6 million
DDRX 5.5 million
Market Caps:
CBOU $91 million
GMCR $2 billion
PEET $344 million
SBUX $10 billion
DDRX $55 million
Most Recent Quarter Revenue Growth (YOY):
CBOU lower than prior year quarter
GMCR 56.3%
PEET 12.5%
SBUX lower than prior year quarter
DDRX 72.3%
Forward Earnings:
CBOU $0.10
GMCR $2.13
PEET $1.14
SBUX $0.85
DDRX $1.50 (my avg. estimate)
Forward PE Ratio:
CBOU 47
GMCR 38
PEET 24
SBUX 16
DDRX 7
DDRX PPS at competitors forward PE:
CBOU $67
GMCR $54
PEET $34
SBUX $23
In conclusion, to value DDRX going forward, it should trade somewhere between $23 to $67 when compared to it's competition.
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My calculations for the $1.50 Fiscal 2009 earnings:
To earn $1.50 they need to make about $8.25 million. If I add on, say $8 million for Corporate expenses, the Wholesale Operation will need to produce $16.25 million in net income.
Wholesale net income margin was 17.5% of revenue last quarter. If they keep it at 17.5% (I think they will improve on that number with continued cost savings) in Fiscal 2009, they will have to do $93 million in revenue from July 2009 through June 2010 to hit the $16.25 million net income number.
I am guessing Wholesale revenue for Fiscal 2008 to finish up in the $70-$75 million range. $93 million would be in the bag imo then for Fiscal 2009. I think it could top $30 million a quarter by then, or $120 million now with sales at Walmart's.
$1.50 EPS x a modest 15 PE = $23 PPS
Earnings and revenues growing this fast it actually deserves a higher PE than 15 imo...
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=76292&tid=707&mid=707&tof=9&am
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My messages are not investment advice, investment solicitation or the like. Do not take action based on my messages. I do not guarantee or make claims to the accuracy of anything I post. I may buy or sell any securities I mention at anytime, even prior to posting. It is my opinion, that individuals should perform their own due diligence before investing in any stock at anytime and not base decisions on messages posted by other individuals. Individuals should assume 100% responsibility for their own investing. My messages are for my own entertainment only. LOW FLOAT stocks in particular can be volatile and are not for new traders in my opinion.
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