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Forum - Mining and Commodities Eh! (Morgan Stanley China - CAF)    All things commodities, with a Canadian Junior Miner focus.

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From: Jimjones1972 (Rep: 3) reply to Jimjones1972Date: 03/03/2018 18:11
Forum: Mining and Commodities Eh! - Msg #6131 - List CAF msgs Thread #673993321 (Rec: 0)
Here are some recent articles over the last two weeks in regards to Anthracite Coal.

1) http://triblive.com/state/pennsylvania/13369159-74/coal-production-seesawing
Note: The United States is the second largest coal producer in the world and Anthracite barely makes up any of it's production.
Key Lines: Weekly anthracite production fell by about 2,000 tons to 38,000 tons and is about 11.1 percent behind the 2017 year-to-date total. National coal production in 2018 is about 6.8 percent behind 2017 production.

2) https://www.workboat.com/blogs/maritime-matters/can-coal-exports-fill-void/
Key lines: A curious example is the shipment of 700,000 tons of steam coal from Pennsylvania and West Virginia to Ukraine to displace Russian coal imports. Half of the tonnage, 350,000, will be anthracite coal that originated in central Pennsylvania in the heart of old hard coal country. There is some optimism in the coal sector that increased exports will take up some of the slack from the domestic markets. However, as long as the U.S. is a swing export coal supplier, expect the continuation of the ups and downs in the export market characterized by relatively short-term contracts and small volumes cited in the aforementioned deals.Until the U.S. can be a low cost producer and shipper, export coal will not become a sustaining sector to supplement the permanent loss of domestic coal.

3) https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/kiev/ukraines-coal-stocks-at-power-plants-down-26-26898427
Key Lines: Reserves of anthracite at power plants dropped 8.9% to 601,100 mt, while stocks of thermal coal rose 1.4% to 866,700 mt.

4) https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/michael-getto-renewables-reinforce-ukraines-energy-independence.html
Key Lines: Many of the coal mines in the Donbass are now under defacto Russian military occupation, which creates legal and ethical obstacles to the use of this coal. As a result, Ukraine’s has resorted to importing anthracite coal from the United States and South Africa; but, this is an expensive option for a country currently surviving on a financial lifeline from the International Monetary Fund

5) https://economics.unian.info/10013294-reuters-how-a-u-s-coal-deal-warmed-ukraine-s-ties-with-trump.html
Key Lines: Along with South Africa, Ukrainian-owned mines in Russia have been the main source of anthracite imports but this is fraught with uncertainty. In the past Moscow has cut off gas supplies to the country over disputes with Kyiv, while the Ukrainian government considered forbidding anthracite imports from Russia in 2017 although no ban has yet been imposed. Overall anthracite imports shot up to 3.05 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2017 from just 0.05 million in all of 2013 - the year before the rebellion erupted.



Reply to Jimjones1972 - Msg #6129 - 02/26/2018 13:13

CAF 10 Year Performance Chart

Year Revenue($USD) Profit/Loss $USD) Assets ($USD) Liabilities ($USD) Asset/Debt Ratio 52 Week High - Low
2007 $6,193,884 -721,465.00 $7,203,120 $4,822,980 1.493499869 $0.38 - $0.08
2008 $9,038,397 -2,639,324.00 $3,134,842 $3,336,654 0.939516654 $0.16 - $0.02
2009 $4,561,417 -539,609.00 $3,270,899 $3,239,579 1.009667923 $0.07 - $0.02
2010 $11,807,383 551,552.00 $3,734,633 $3,006,923 1.242011518 $0.09 - $0.02
2011 $13,336,725 574,766.00 $3,704,897 $2,673,936 1.38555934 $0.14 - $0.06
2012 $10,882,074 $126,169 $4,029,063 $2,871,933 1.402909817 $0.10 - $0.05
2013 $14,969,633 $557,797 $4,141,224 $2,426,297 1.71 $0.09 - $0.05
2014 $13,257,224 $201,330 $3,597,561 $1,681,304 2.14 $0.10 - $0.07
2015 $9,156,927 -$285,218 $3,512,225 $1,881,186 1.87 $0.08 - $0.04
2016 $4,703,528 -$162,065 $2,729,318 $1,260,344 2.17 $0.06 - $0.04
2017 $10,699,117 $439,664 $3,315,232 $1,406,594 2.36 $0.11 - $0.05

Notes 1) 2008: The company wrote off it's Uganda investment, taking a major asset hit
2) 2012: Drop in revenue was caused by A) Customer Issues 2) SA National Strikes 3) Rand Devaluation
3) 2013: Certain write downs and one main customer down for 4 months reduced net income
4) 2015: Production issues, strong USD and weaker Rand. CAF bank loan dropped stock price
5) 2016: Sales down from new plant being installed. Q4 2016 marked turnaround
6) 2017: Losses from 2015-2016 recovered, strongest asset/debt ratio in a decade
6a) Rand & Coking Coal prices at multi year high. Bank debt nearly paid off. Stock price still inexpensive
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